Note: Confidence interval derived from options market information for the five trading days ending Jan 5, 2017. Intervals not calculated for months with sparse trading in near-the-money options contracts.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts benchmark North Sea Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $53 per barrel (b) and $52/b, respectively, in 2017, close to their levels during the last three weeks of 2016. These prices are expected to rise to $56/b and $55/b, respectively, in 2018.
EIA’s price forecasts have wide uncertainty bands that are consistent with contract values for future delivery. For example, contracts traded during the five-day period ending January 5 suggest that the market expects WTI prices could range from $35/b to $93/b (at the 95% confidence interval) in December 2017.